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Understanding the mechanisms that dictate the localization of cytoskeletal filaments is crucial for elucidating cell shape regulation in prokaryotes. The actin homolog MreB plays a pivotal role in maintaining the shape of many rod-shaped bacteria such asEscherichia coliby directing cell-wall synthesis according to local curvature cues. However, the basis of MreB’s curvature-dependent localization has remained elusive. Here, we develop a biophysical model for the energetics of a filament binding to a surface that integrates the complex interplay between filament twist and bending and the two-dimensional surface geometry. Our model predicts that the spatial localization of a filament like MreB with substantial intrinsic twist is governed by both the mean and Gaussian curvatures of the cell envelope, which strongly covary in rod-shaped cells. Using molecular dynamics simulations to estimate the mechanical properties of MreB filaments, we show that their thermodynamic preference for regions with lower mean and Gaussian curvatures matches experimental observations for physiologically relevant filament lengths of ~50 nm. We find that the experimentally measured statistical curvature preference is maintained in the absence of filament motion and after a cycle of depolymerization, repolymerization, and membrane rebinding, indicating that equilibrium energetics can explain MreB localization. These findings provide critical insights into the physical principles underlying cytoskeletal filament localization and suggest design principles for synthetic shape-sensing nanomaterials.